第4章 信仰危机

然而,随着事件的发展,新的法规和技术进步无限期地推延了危言耸听者们预言的最后审判日。《增长的极限》出版之时,美国农民平均每英亩地收获88蒲式耳玉米;40年之后,得益于转基因技术、精准灌溉和电脑控制的耕地拖拉机,玉米的平均亩产量已经提高了三分之二,而这一点书中的模型并没有预测出来。虽然地壳中铝土矿量的总数不变,但是其越来越高的价格促使人们寻找能够替代铝的新材料,回收啤酒罐的生意也日渐兴隆。汽车业、建筑业和发电厂对于矿物燃料的利用更加高效,单位产出所需的原材料也大大降低。当年大行其道的声称创新和法规都无法改变即将降临的灾难的说法,已经被证明是完全错误的。

上述的一切都是未来发生的。而在1972年,迫在眉睫的问题是清理排向天空、河流和海洋的污染物,以及处理数百万吨被随意堆放在世界各地的有害废物。按照新的法规要求,大部分成本都将由制造商和发电厂承担,他们需要清除废气中的有害气体和微粒,还要在废水排入最近的河流前对其进行处理。过去,厂商在很大程度上回避了这些支出,把环境破坏的后果丢给了社会。现在,政府通过环保许可证和非法排污罚款,要求他们承担起应尽的责任。

环保法规最终带来了广泛的收益,包括公众健康和环境清洁等方面。但它也让企业将投资中越来越多的部分用于安装污染控制设备,而不是建设新的厂房和购买机械设备。随着世界经济的黄金时代走向终结,这将成为增长所要背负的另一项负担。

donellah.meadowsetal.,citethelimitstogrowth/cite(newyork:universebooks,1972),23.

robertgillette,“thelimitstogrowth:hardsellforacomputerviewofdoomsday,”citescience/cite175(march10,1972):1,088;williamnordhaus,“worlddynamics:measurementwithoutdata,”citetheeconomicjournal/cite83(1973):1,157;jeanmatteoli,“lesressourcesmondialesetl’economiefrancaise,”conseileconomiqueetsociale197/13(1975):11;christopherfreeman,“malthuswithacomputer,”inh.s.d.coleetal.,eds.,citethinkingaboutthefuture:acritiqueof/citethelimitstogrowth(london:chatto&windus,1973),11.

frankuekoetter,citetheageofsmoke/cite(pittsburgh:universityofpittsburghpress,2009),118–119,132–136.

quotationisfromarepresentativeofenjaychemicalcompany,citedingeraldmarkowitzanddavidrosner,citedeceitanddenial/cite(berkeley,ca:universityofcaliforniapress,2002),144.

paulr.ehrlich,citethepopulationbomb/cite(newyork:ballantinebooks,1968),precursors,seepierredesrochersandchristinehoffbauer,“thepost-warintellectualrootsofthepopulationbomb,”citeelectronicjournalofsustainabledevelopment/cite1(2009):37–61.

1969—1973年特拉华州的共和党州长彼得森讲述了1971年该州共和党控制的立法机构如何不顾所谓更进步的民主党人的反对,批准了一项限制在该州海岸线两英里范围内发展工业的法律。seepeterson,citerebelwithaconscience/cite(newark,de:universityofdelawarepress,1999),147–149.

tapeofconversationamongpresidentnixon,lidoanthonyiacocca,henryfordii,andjohns.ehrlichmanintheovaloffice,april27,1971,nixonpresidentiallibrary&museum,nationalarchivesandrecordsadministration(nara);richardnixon,“remarksonsigningbillestablishingthecommissiononpopulationgrowthandtheamericanfuture,”march16,1970,onlinebygerhardpetersandjohny,citetheamericanpresidencyproject/cite,atwww.presidencydu/ws/?pid=2911;commissiononpopulationgrowthandtheamericanfuture,citefinalreport/cite(washington,1972),12,52;richardnixon,“statementaboutthereportofthecommissiononpopulationgrowthandtheamericanfuture,”may5,1972,citetheamericanpresidencyproject/cite,atwww.presidencydu/ws/?pid=3399.

edwardgoldsmithandrobertallen,ablueprintforsurvival,”citetheecologist/cite2(1972);unitednationsenvironmentalprogram,declarationoftheunitednationsconferenceonthehumanenvironment”(june1972);jeanbourgeois-pichat,“in200yearssomanythingscanhappen,”citepopulationindex/cite38(1972):re.hecox,“limitstogrowthrevisited:hastheworldmodelingdebatemadeanyprogress?”citebostoncollegeenvironmentalaffairslawreview/cite5(1976):65–96.

theunidentifiedisraeldiplomatisquotedinjohnbrooks,“areporteratlarge:startingover,”citethenewyorker/cite,october23,1971.“静态国家”这一术语来自英国哲学家约翰·斯图尔特·密尔。seejohnharteandroberth.socolow,“theequilibriumsociety,”injohnharteandroberth.socolow,eds.,citepatientearth/cite(newyork:holt,rinehartandwinston,1971),203.

hermane.daly,“towardastationary-stateeconomy,”inharteandsocolow,eds.,citepatientearth/cite,228–231.

1英亩≈4046.86平方米。

1蒲式耳(美制)≈35.238升。

onweight-to-outputtrends,seegreciamatosandloriewagner,“consumptionofmaterialsintheunitedstates,1990–1995,”usgeologicalsurvey,1999.

edwardf.denison,“effectsofselectedchangesintheinstitutionalandhumanenvironmentuponoutputperunitofinput,”citesurveyofcurrentbusiness/cite58(january1978):21–44;garyl.rutledge,“pollutionabatementandcontrolexpendituresinconstantandcurrentdollars,1972–1977,”citesurveyofcurrentbusiness/cite59(february1979):13–20.in1972,approximately6percentofcapitalspendingbyusbusinesseswenttoenvironmentalabatement;by1977,thefigurewas8percent.